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November 4, 2009 – The Swinden Group, through their Severe Weather Advisories, is advising their clients that a new tropical cyclone has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica and should strengthen into a tropical storm later today. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued.

At 1000 am EST, 1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located about 65 miles south-southwest of San Andres Island and about 125 miles east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be approaching the East Coast of Nicaragua this evening. However computer models are not in agreement with this track and the storm could stall and remain in the Caribbean while gaining strength.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

Threats & Damages

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7 inches over San Andres Island with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches are expected over eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras with maximum amounts of 25 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash flood and mudslides. Also expect minor structural damage to poorly constructed buildings due to tropical storm force winds. Expect travel delays and road closures in this region. Interests in the region should be prepared for torrential rains for an extended period.

“Torrential rains triggering flash flooding and mudslides will be the main threat,” explains Matthew Swinden, President of the Swinden Group, which provides weather risk management services to organizations and individuals though their Severe Weather Advisories. “Worst case scenario is that this storm will be a slow mover and produce rainfall amounts in excess of a foot or more. Expect widespread moderate to major flooding with mudslides, minor structural damage – especially to poorly constructed structures, damage to the infrastructure to include water, sewer, power, communications, roads and transportations. Right now it is a bit early in the life-cycle of this storm to give an accurate track and intensity forecast, thus interests in the region should monitor the progress of this storm and take the necessary actions.”

Watches & Warnings

At 10 am ES, 1500 UTC, the government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of San Andres and Providencia.

At 10 am, the government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire eastern coast of Nicaragua.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business operations and travel.

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.