China Property Stock Index Points to Slump: Technical Analysis
Oct. 2 – Warwick Ventures cautioned their active commodities traders today that the China’s benchmark for property stocks is close to slipping below its 200-day moving average, signaling losses in global stocks and commodities and gains in the U.S. dollar.
The Se Shang Property index’s 200-day moving average is at 4,214.70, 4.5 percent below the index’s close of 4,413.23 on Sept. 30. The index, which is down 28 percent from its July high, is an “exceptional” predictor of global markets, said Jeffery Samuelson, citing a Bank of America report. The index warned of China’s economic slump in late 2007 and signaled the nation’s recovery in late 2008, Samuelson said.
Predictions are already in place for how this slump will effect China’s rate outlook. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said this week China may raise interest rates twice next year as economic growth picks up and inflation accelerates. The nation may start tightening monetary policy by increasing bank reserve requirements in the fourth quarter of this year, Credit Suisse Group AG said.
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